Updated 2/4

The Power of the Dog	Licorice Pizza	Dune	CODA	King Richard
The precursor juggernaut. Everyone knew there would be love for the film, but I don’t think to this degree	Turned into a precursor monster. Will garner a lot of #1 votes	The Oscars have to have at least one blockbuster in the lineup, and the pedigree is there	The Sundance Audience winner debuted to rapturous praise and needs to keep momentum, but it looks like it’s in good shape right now	Surprised at the sustained buzz, but movie stars can do that for a film
Belfast	Being the Ricardos	Drive My Car	The Tragedy of Macbeth	West Side Story
It’s barely hanging on, but it’s still pretty solidly in the race	Though the reception was less than ecstatic, Hollywood loves to honor stories about itself	Of all the International Feature contenders, this is the one that has gotten the most attention from audiences and precursors	Peaking at the right time to get the big nominations	I am the most dubious about this film than most others. It keeps missing vital precursors
		ALTERNATIVES
Don’t Look Up	Tick, Tick…BOOM!	Parallel Mothers	The House of Gucci	The French Dispatch
Backlash or no backlash, people are definitely talking about it. McKay has two BP noms in his last two films	The one film that has hung on way longer than I expected. Lots of good, very little negative	How close could it have gotten if Spain wouldn’t have messed up their International Film chances?	The overwhelming negative reaction seems way too much to overcome at this point in the race	Wes Anderson couldn’t get arrested by the Academy for years until he finally broke through. Now, they won’t leave him alone. We just need to wait to see it.
		MORE ALTERNATIVES
The Lost Daughter	Cyrano	Nightmare Alley	A Hero	C’mon C’mon
Surprisingly included in a lot of important places, but ultimately too divisive	Lots of positive attention, but no one is seeing it and they won’t for a bit. Could be too late	Landed with a thud. Expect some technical nods, but a Best Picture nomination seems a longshot at this point	The other international contender. Lots of people love it, but it might be breaking too late	Everyone who has seen it loves it, but few have seen it