Updated 2/4
The Power of the Dog | Licorice Pizza | Dune | CODA | King Richard |
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The precursor juggernaut. Everyone knew there would be love for the film, but I don’t think to this degree | Turned into a precursor monster. Will garner a lot of #1 votes | The Oscars have to have at least one blockbuster in the lineup, and the pedigree is there | The Sundance Audience winner debuted to rapturous praise and needs to keep momentum, but it looks like it’s in good shape right now | Surprised at the sustained buzz, but movie stars can do that for a film |
Belfast | Being the Ricardos | Drive My Car | The Tragedy of Macbeth | West Side Story |
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It’s barely hanging on, but it’s still pretty solidly in the race | Though the reception was less than ecstatic, Hollywood loves to honor stories about itself | Of all the International Feature contenders, this is the one that has gotten the most attention from audiences and precursors | Peaking at the right time to get the big nominations | I am the most dubious about this film than most others. It keeps missing vital precursors |
ALTERNATIVES | ||||
Don’t Look Up | Tick, Tick…BOOM! | Parallel Mothers | The House of Gucci | The French Dispatch |
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Backlash or no backlash, people are definitely talking about it. McKay has two BP noms in his last two films | The one film that has hung on way longer than I expected. Lots of good, very little negative | How close could it have gotten if Spain wouldn’t have messed up their International Film chances? | The overwhelming negative reaction seems way too much to overcome at this point in the race | Wes Anderson couldn’t get arrested by the Academy for years until he finally broke through. Now, they won’t leave him alone. We just need to wait to see it. |
MORE ALTERNATIVES | ||||
The Lost Daughter | Cyrano | Nightmare Alley | A Hero | C’mon C’mon |
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Surprisingly included in a lot of important places, but ultimately too divisive | Lots of positive attention, but no one is seeing it and they won’t for a bit. Could be too late | Landed with a thud. Expect some technical nods, but a Best Picture nomination seems a longshot at this point | The other international contender. Lots of people love it, but it might be breaking too late | Everyone who has seen it loves it, but few have seen it |