Best Actress

Kristen Stewart
Spencer
Jessica Chastain
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nicole Kidman
Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman
The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga
The House of Gucci
No nominations2 nominations1 win, 4 nominations2 nominations, 1 win1 nomination (for acting)
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She’s getting raves almost across the board. The closest thing to a lock in this raceDespite the less than stellar reception of the film, Chastain is getting all the praise. Could be contending for the win if she plays her cards rightThe late-arriving performance that will pop the most. We should never doubt Kidman this late in the gameShe has kept popping up in the awards conversation and doesn’t look to be going away. Is she a lead?The only aspect of Gucci that is hanging on is Gaga. She could be in solidly, she could miss…and neither would surprise me
ALTERNATIVES
Penelope Cruz
Parallel Mothers
Rachel Zegler
West Side Story
Alana Haim
Licorice Pizza
Tessa Thompson
Passing
Jodie Comer
The Last Duel
3 nominations,
1 win
No nominationsNo nominationsNo nominationsNo nominations
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She has shown the ability to be nominated for Spanish-speaking Almodovar movies in the past, so why don’t do it again?The late break and early precursor attention helped. Commercial success will be another big factorSomeone always comes out of nowhere and it looks like it’s Haim. The film’s reception singles out her, but we’ll have to see how the public likes itShe has a ton of fans and commercial success, but will she be overshadowed by Negga or other aspects of the film?The film has its defenders, and everyone is singling her performance. She will need precursor help to stick around
MORE ALTERNATIVES
Jennifer Lawrence
Don’t Look Up
Frances McDormand
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jennifer Hudson
Respect
Emila Jones
CODA
Renate Reinsve
The Worst Person in the World
1 win, 4 nominations6 nominations (for acting),
3 wins
1 nomination,
1 win
No nominationsNo nominations
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Lots of people will welcome her back, but others are completely out on her and the film. Would have to hit very big with audiencesNo actress in Hollywood is on a hotter Oscar streak than McDormand. It is much more likely they would be sick of her than her being badThe film arrived with a “Meh” but Hudson was singled out. Maybe she can win some precursors and leg it outHollywood loves to award brand-new stars and Jones seems primed. Could be in line for breakthrough awardsEveryone who has seen the movie loves her, but two problems: 1) foreign performance 2) no one is seeing the movie