Will Smith King Richard | Benedict Cumberbatch The Power of the Dog | Andrew Garfield Tick, Tick, Boom! | Denzel Washington The Tragedy of Macbeth | Nicolas Cage Pig |
2 nominations | 1 nomination | 1 nomination | 8 nominations (for acting), 2 wins | 2 nominations, 1 win |
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In contention for the win. Expect some backlash | Runaway precursor champ. Locked in | Locked and loaded | Macbeth hit at the right time and he is undeniable at this point | If Cage gets a nod, he can thank his wonderful performance, but the timing of the Hulu release certainly didn’t hurt |
ALTERNATIVES | ||||
Peter Dinklage Cyrano | Simon Rex Red Rocket | Leonardo DiCaprio Don’t Look Up | Clifton Collins Jr Jockey | Joaquin Phoenix C’mon C’mon |
No nominations | No nominations | 6 nominations, 1 win (for acting) | No nominations | 4 nominations, 1 win |
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A travesty of release mis-management. He should be a shoe-in, but I would be shocked at this point | Small films with unsympathetic leads are a tough sell when the star is a movie star, but Rex is not. Rave reviews, but would be a real stretch. | Never doubt Leo in a Best Actor race. The film is divisive (to say the least), but you never know | As great as he is, not many are seeing the film. Would be a welcome surprise, but not to be expected at this point | Mike Mills films can swing a nomination, but will the Joaquin afterglow still be there following his Joker win? |
MORE ALTERNATIVES | ||||
Bradley Cooper Nightmare Alley | Jude Hill Belfast | Oscar Isaac The Card Counter | Anthony Ramos In the Heights | Mahershala Ali Swan Song |
4 nominations (for acting) | No nominations | No nominations | No nominations | 2 nominations, 2 wins |
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Cooper has gotten great and mixed reviews for the film, but his movie stardom could win out | Inline for all the breakthrough awards. Young actors have a tough time breaking through to the Oscar lineup a la Jamie Bell | It has to happen for Isaac eventually, but Schrader films are not usually the Academy’s cup of tea | Should have been more in the conversation, but the film just couldn’t gain the momentum | The movie landed with a quiet response, despite the Golden Globe nomination |