My initial Oscar predictions have been a pretty monumental faceplant. So let’s go ahead and get into another round of embarrassing myself! It’s time for my first 2023 Oscar predictions!

Big Films, Big Hits

So many of the 2023 predictions are based on the idea of these big films coming through in a big way. Everyone is hoping on Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro. I am a little cooler on them than most, but I still see them getting in plenty of categories. Same thing goes for Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, which is reportedly not ready and being delayed to the end of the year. I see that as a good thing for the film as far as Oscar voting goes.

My big question is concerning Greta Gerwig’s Barbie. Can a film that debuts in the middle of the Summer and has the bubble-gum qualities that the film does translate and last to the end of the year? I’m leaning towards no, but I still have it showing up all over for craft categories. I’m also dubious about the Oscar chances of Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part 2. Despite the first film earning a bunch of nominations including Best Picture, sequels are a real mixed bag for the Academy. It might be difficult to deny if it reaches the heights of the first one.

Returning Auteurs

Emerald Fennel returns to the fray following her Oscar win for Promising Young Woman with the upcoming Saltburn. Additionally, past Oscar directors Alexander Payne, Steve McQueen. and Todd Haynes are in play this year with The Holdovers, Blitz, and May December. It’s so difficult to predict what will be a huge critical smash and what will actually play with the Oscars, so we might have a long wait to find out.

Despite no previous Oscar success, Sean Durkin looks to break through with his wrestling drama The Iron Claw. That’s the film I’m predicting heavier than most. Additionally, Celine Song’s Past Lives was a Sundance sensation and might prove to be a big Oscar play as well across the board. I also want to mention animation legend Hayao Miyazaki with his final film How Do You Live?. Only three animated films have ever been nominated for Best Picture, but I’m predicting his swan song to be the fourth.

More Than Just Acting Juggernauts

Blitz Bazawule’s upcoming remake of The Color Purple could be the acting nomination champ this year with potential across the board for the entire cast. That momentum could carry it on to plenty of craft nominations as well. Yorgos Lanthimos returns with Poor Things which might be a bit too wacky for the Academy in Best Picture, but could find Emma Stone and Willem Dafoe squarely in the mix.

Just like every year, biopics could rear their head in the acting categories. Ellen Kuras’ Lee sees Kate Winslet as a model turned journalist, while Annette Bening is the title character in Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi’s Nyad. I personally see a path for a boatload of nominations for the often-delayed biopic from director George C. Wolfe Rustin, with Colman Domingo as the title character.

Full 2023 Oscar Predictions

I’m still working on the full charts, but check out all my predictions! Happy 2023 Oscars!

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