We’re less than four days from the 95th Academy Awards, so it is past time for me to deliver my 100% guaranteed successful Oscar winners. We will start and the top and go from there.

BEST PICTURE

There might have been a whiff of competition when the BAFTA’s gave their top award to All Quiet on the Western Front, but since then EEAAO has steamrolled every other awards body. It will be a great Best Picture winner. Anything else would be a monumental shock.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: None
Dark Horse: None

BEST DIRECTOR

For a while there, it seemed like Spielberg had this in the bag, then the Daniels came in and started racking up guilds prizes left and right. The film is a very director-centric one, so it’s well-deserved. Don’t sleep on Spielberg, though.

Will Win: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Dark Horse: Todd Field, TAR

BEST ACTOR

A three-horse race that feels more like two. While Farrell would be a worthy winner, it’s always been neck-and-neck between Fraser and Butler. The Academy is still an organization filled with older people, who I feel will award the older Fraser while seeing Butler as the young guy with many future opportunities at an Oscar win.

Will Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Could Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Dark Horse: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST ACTRESS

Could go either way and neither would be shocking or undeserved. Do the Oscar really want to give Blanchett her third Oscar? Or are they gonna go with the EEAAO juggernaut? I predict the latter.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everything All At Once
Could Win: Cate Blanchett, TAR
Dark Horse: None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Quan has won an near-unprecedented amount of trophies. This is in the bag.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: None
Dark Horse: None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is a wild race that could go any number of ways. It seemed like Bassett would run away with it until the BAFTAs went with Condon. Curtis winning the SAG made things even stranger. I’ll tell you this much, if Curtis wins the Oscar, Michelle Yeoh has her Oscar wrapped up. As it stands, I feel like Bassett will eventually triumph.

Will Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Could Win: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark Horse: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

For as formidable a contender EEAAO is, this is where I feel the least confident. Yes, it won the WGA, but this might be the only chance to give an Oscar to both Banshees and TAR. I’m still predicting EEAAO, but I don’t feel good about it.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark Horse: TAR

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A wild category. Women Talking barely makes a dent in the nominations and now might actually win this? Guild and precursors are leaning in that direction.

Will Win: Women Talking
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Can Mandy Walker become the first female Oscar winner for Best Cinematography? How much do the voters love Elvis? It could be the Dune-level crafts champion.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: TAR

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Never count out recent winner Ruth E. Carter for Wakanda Forever, but Elvis is the kind of movie this category loves to award.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dark Horse: Babylon

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

This might be the only other change All Quiet has to win a crafts Oscar. But, I think the Elvis train rolls on.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST FILM EDITING

We talked about this category over at The Film Experience at length. My heart says EEAAO, but my brain says Maverick.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Dark Horse: Elvis

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar was supposed to be a much bigger deal with Oscar, but this award should be the only thing it gets. It is pretty much a sure thing.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win: None
Dark Horse: None

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Which fat suit will they award? Just like Best Actress last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if this goes hand-in-hand with Best Actor. I actually don’t think that, just don’t be surprised.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: The Whale
Dark Horse: The Batman

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Don’t overthink it

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: None
Dark Horse: None

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Am I predicting Babylon because the score is my favorite thing about it, or am I thinking too much with my heart? There has been lots of chatter about how this might be the only way for The Fabelmans to win an Oscar. No choice would surprise me

Will Win: Babylon
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

RRR has won every precursor. It will win again. No reason to think anything else.

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Could Win: None
Dark Horse: None

BEST SOUND

Probably Maverick‘s sole sure-thing win

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Dark Horse: Elvis

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

On paper, this is a slam dunk for Pinocchio, but something isn’t sitting right with me. I don’t know what it is. I have my guard up.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Dark Horse: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

I’m guessing Ice Merchants because I love it. But I really have no clue

Will Win: Ice Merchants
Could Win: The Boy, the Fox, the Mole and the Horse
Dark Horse: An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

A super-competitive category. Nothing has emerged as a favorite, so I’ll default to the most mainstream of the releases

Will Win: Fire of Love
Could Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Dark Horse: Navalny

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Netflix is competing against itself. I like to default to feel-good.

Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Could Win: The Martha Mitchell Effect
Dark Horse: Stranger at the Gate

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Again, up in the air. Probably wide-open.

Will Win: Le Pupille
Could Win: An Irish Goodbye
Dark Horse: The Red Suitcase

Final Tally

Everything Everywhere All At Once – 5 wins
Elvis – 4 wins
Top Gun: Maverick – 2 wins
The Whale – 1 win
Babylon – 1 win
Avatar: The Way of Water – 1 win
All Quiet on the Western Front – 1 win
RRR – 1 win
Women Talking – 1 win
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – 1 win
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – 1 win
Fire of Love – 1 win
Ice Merchants – 1 win
The Elephant Whisperers – 1 win
Le Pupille – 1 win