The 2022 Oscar Nominations are here! Now that we know what will be competing for the biggest prize of the film year, let’s dig in to each of the main categories.

Best Picture

I underestimated Triangle of Sadness for months as soon as the buzz died down. It’s a film I really enjoyed, but it never felt like the Oscars cup of tea. Meanwhile, I had all the belief in the world for Women Talking until the last three weeks. I thought it had the chance for 5-6 nominations, and then I kicked it out in favor of The Whale (which probably finished 11th) and The Woman King (which missed completely). It’s a pretty solid Best Picture ten, if you ask me. They have definitely done worse.

My Predictions: 8/10 (Missed Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking)

Best Director

The Academy sure has an odd relationship with James Cameron. They initially wanted no part of him, then they couldn’t stop awarding him, now their back to ignoring. I assumed they couldn’t look past the monumental box office success of Avatar: The Way of Water, but they chose to go international for the fourth straight year. Ruben Ostlund follows in the footsteps of Bong Joon-ho, Thomas Vinterberg, and Ryusuke Hamaguchi as international Best Director nominees. The other four nominees were set in stone.

My Predictions: 4/5 (Missed Ostlund)

Best Actor

Those top four actors were locked in tight, but that fifth slot was the real question. I was having 2021 Best Supporting Actress flashbacks since everyone in the world had the same five predictions. Well, I went off the beaten path and assumed Tom Cruise would get the nomination. Turns out, the consensus was correct. Can’t win them all.

My Predictions: 4/5 (Missed Mescal)

Best Actress

Well, that was certainly something. Outside of Blanchett and Yeoh, throw your hands up in the air. Ana de Armas really had a great few weeks and probably cruised to the nomination. I thought the precursor support for Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler would hold, but I was wrong. Michelle Williams was inevitable. On the other hand, the out-of-nowhere grassroots campaigning for Andrea Riseborough got her the nomination! This kind of celebrity lobbying will have plenty of thinkpieces to follow, but I think it’s a worthy performance (albeit in a tiny film). She is a great actress that deserves the attention.

My Predictions: 3/5 (Missed Riseborough and Williams)

Best Supporting Actor

In my defense, I was 5/5 for which films were represented in this category. Quan and the Banshee boys found their way in, while I correctly predicted a shock nomination for Brian Tyree Henry’s touching work in Causeway. Paul Dano was the one who got Judi Dench-ed. In 2021, everyone was predicting Catriona Balfe for her vibrant work in Belfast, but it was her older co-star Judi Dench who took the nomination. Same thing for Dano this year with Judd Hirsch. Apparently, five minutes of a 2.5 hour film is enough to get you nominated (not that any of that is Hirsch’s fault).

My Predictions: 4/5 (Missed Hirsch)

Best Supporting Actress

If I was going to be wrong about a nominee, I’m glad it was Hong Chau’s beautiful performance in The Whale. Condon and Bassett were the only sure things, and I was banking on the EEAAO ladies to overperform. Pour one out for Janelle Monae and Dolly de Leon, who probably just missed by the skin of their teeth. Who knows why the Academy completely ignored the Women Talking performances.

My Predictions: 4/5 (Missed Chau)

Best Original Screenplay

The foursome of Banshees, EEAAO, Fabelmans, and TAR was immensely predictable, but that fourth spot was always in flux. There were a number of places it could have gone. I guess I just never expected the Oscars to go for something like Triangle of Sadness, especially after snubbing Dolly de Leon in Supporting Actress. This seemed like the perfect place to give Aftersun some love outside of Mescal, but I was mistaken.

My Predictions: 4/5 (Missed Triangle of Sadness)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Pretty straightforward. The top three were a bit of an afterthought, but after missing Original Score, the nomination for Women Talking was a pleasant surprise. I thought She Said would make any sort of impact, but the Academy went with Top Gun: Maverick instead. Not a bad nomination, just a bit unexpected.

My Predictions: 4/5 (Missed Top Gun: Maverick)

Overall Predictions: 82/120
I didn’t go 0/5 in any category, but somehow only went 1/5 in Best Cinematography. The only category I got completely right was Best Visual Effects. I successfully predicted 4/5 in 13 categories

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2022 Oscar Nominations
2021 Oscar Nomination Reactions

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