We are less than four days from the actual 2022 Oscar Nominations! Though the season has not been nearly as long as the last few years, it’s still been dragging a bit. Before we hear the announcement on Tuesday, let’s dive in to whom I feel will have their name called.
Locks: Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon
Probably Safe: N/A
Maybe, Maybe Not: Janelle Monae, Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu
Bassett and Condon are easily in, but who the hell knows after that. The ladies from Everything Everywhere All At Once could both get in but both could miss. Same thing goes for Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley if Women Talking overperforms. Hong Chau just missed an Oscar nomination in 2017 for Downsizing and I have her just missing again. I don’t know if the Academy is gonna go for Triangle of Sadness in any way, but if they do, Dolly de Leon should be in the lineup as well. Nina Hoss, Jean Smart, and Carey Mulligan could also surprise. It’s a real crap shoot outside of the top two.
Locks: Ke Huy Quan, Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoughan
Probably Safe: Paul Dano
Maybe, Maybe Not: Brian Tyree Henry
Here is a much more stable category. The top four feel very secure, though it wouldn’t blow me away if Dano gets replaced by his The Fabelmans co-star Judd Hirsch. I love Henry’s performance and would hope he has the support to get the nomination, but his exculsion for previous winners Eddie Redmayne or Brad Pitt wouldn’t shock me.
Locks: Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh
Probably Safe: Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis
Maybe, Maybe Not: Ana de Armas
Last year, I said the actress race was set in stone, only for Lady Gaga to miss the lineup in favor of Penelope Cruz. I am much more guarded this year. You could throw any of four performances (de Armas, Margot Robbie, Andrea Riseborough, or Michelle Williams) in that fifth spot and I wouldn’t bat an eye. There is some odd industry chatter about Williams snagging a Supporting nomination, but I don’t really believe it. de Armas has had a surprising precursor run, so I’m giving her the nod.
Locks: Brendan Fraser, Collin Farrell, Austin Butler
Probably Safe: Bill Nighy
Maybe, Maybe Not: Tom Cruise
You read that right. I see Tom Cruise as getting a Best Actor nomination for Top Gun: Maverick. He has been surprisingly around for a lot of precursor nominations and the response to the film is almost overwhelming. Plus, it’s not like some other candidate has come in and stolen his thunder. Arguments can be made for Paul Mescal, Gabriel LaBelle, Tom Hanks, and Diego Calva, but nothing that can convince me to definitely change my mind. That being said, I’m slightly worried about Nighy missing.
Locks: Stephen Spielberg
Probably Safe: Daniels, Martin McDonagh
Maybe, Maybe Not: Todd Field, James Cameron
This is by far the most volatile category. If nomination morning comes and I get only Spielberg correct, I won’t be blown away. Outside of these five, there’s Edward Burger, Sarah Polley, Damien Chazelle, Charlotte Wells, Baz Luhrmann and a host of others. It could go a thousand different ways. Hell, S.S. Rajamouli isn’t even on the chart and could land a nomination for RRR. It’s a real mess. I’m throwing darts at this point.
Locks: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick
Probably Safe: TAR, Elvis, Avatar: The Way of Water
Maybe, Maybe Not: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Woman King, The Whale
This is a race for the bottom three. All Quiet might be the nomination leader, and I would expect a Best Picture nomination to follow. The Whale has done enough box office and shown up on enough lists to be in. The Woman King is my big swing. It’s a crowd-pleasing critic hit that continues to make waves on precursor lists. Glass Onion, Women Talking, Babylon, and RRR are happily waiting in the wings for a chance to surprise.
We get to find out Tuesday morning at 8:30 am Eastern. Happy Oscar Season!