| The Color Purple | Killers of the Flower Moon | Saltburn | Oppenheimer | Past Lives |
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| Best Picture nominee + Tony awards magnet + exciting new cast | Doubt Scorsese at your own peril at this point | I’m betting big on Fennell being a new Oscar favorite | Big box office will help, but Nolan has his rabid fans and his fierce detractors | Monstrous reception out of Sundance. Just will need to stand the test of time |
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| The Iron Claw | Rustin | Blitz | Maestro | Dune: Part 2 |
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| Durkin is too interesting a filmmaker for the Academy to ignore him as they have thus far | Yes, it’s a biopic, but I’m betting on powerhouse performances and a lot of eyes on Netlix to help get this over the hump | McQueen and Ronan together might be enough to send this over the top, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it gets totally blanked | The tide has turned on Bradley Cooper as director, but the film will need an enthusiastic response to overcome that | Part 1 was a big Oscar player. If the hype holds, Part 2 can get there just as easily |
| | ALTERNATIVES | | |
| Barbie | May December | The Holdovers | Poor Things | How Do You Live? |
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| I’m skeptical because the Academy rarely responds to bubbly populist films. But, Gerwig is 2/2 in Best Picture | Carol was probably just outside the BP lineup, and Haynes’ reputation might finally be enough | Payne’s films haven’t had problems getting nominated before, even when the reception is muted | We’ll see if Lanthimos gets the same reception he got for The Favourite | We haven’t had an animated Best Picture nominee since Toy Story 3 in 2010. Could say we are overdue |
| | MORE ALTERNATIVES | | |
| Lee | Nyad | The Piano Lesson | The Killer | Napoleon |
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| Biopics are one thing, but Winslet is another | Between Bening and Foster, the star power alone could propel the film if it gets seen by enough eyes | August Wilson adaptations have done VERY well with Best Picture. Could happen again | Lately, Fincher films have been more acting-acclaimed than the film. We’ll see if that holds | Ridley Scott is so hit or miss and this looks so standard |
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IceCream4Freaks 