| The Fabelmans | Babylon | The Banshees of Inisherin | Women Talking | Everything Everywhere All At Once |
 |  |  |  |  |
| Spielberg is beloved and it’s a personal story. Seems like a safe bet | After the lackluster response from First Man, Chazelle looks to bounce back | McDonagh’s fans are very passionate. Now that he is back in his native country, the Academy could be very receptive | Sarah Polley got some traction early in her career, but hasn’t had anything since. Lots of positive buzz now | Came in and stole all the “early season buzz” from The Batman. People who love it REALLY love it |
| | | | |
| Top Gun: Maverick | Decision to Leave | Empire of Light | The Whale | Avatar: The Way of Water |
 |  |  |  |  |
| Impossible to ignore at this point. This may be too low a placement | The International branch has managed to get a film into the BP lineup for three out of four years. Maybe this is another one | Sam Mendes has recently returned to AMPAS’ good graces. You can never count him out. Feels like an older voter film | Could prove to be controversial, but Fraser and Aronofsky could still get it there | It’s hard to ignore James Cameron in normal situations, but they really dug the original and they could love this too |
| | ALTERNATIVES | | |
| Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery | White Noise | TAR | Triangle of Sadness | Till |
 |  |  |  |  |
| The original probably just missed the BP lineup. This one could be just as close | After Marriage Story, Baumbach is a real player – especially with Gerwig and Driver on board | The Academy rarely goes for this type of film, but its champions are loud and passionate | Could face “internal” competition from Decision, but Ostlund has his fanatics | The trailer looked formulaic, but this could be a big commercial hit |
| | MORE ALTERNATIVES | | |
| She Said | Armageddon Time | Elvis | Bones and All | Bardo |
 |  |  |  |  |
| Timely story and a solid cast might be all it needs | James Grey has been dying for a breakout and this story seems like the one to make it happen | The Academy can’t make up their minds when it comes to Luhrmann, but all the ingredients are there | A tough sell to members, but the people who love it REALLY love it | Inarritu films have to be taken seriously, no matter the lukewarm reaction |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
IceCream4Freaks 