| Steven Spielberg The Fabelmans | Sarah Polley Women Talking | Martin McDonagh The Banshees of Inisherin | Darren Aronofsky The Whale | Park Chan-Wook Decision to Leave |
| 8 nominations, 2 wins (for directing) | No nominations (for directing) | No nominations (for directing) | 1 nomination | No nominations |
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| He’s one of the favorites of the directors’ branch. If the film gets good reviews, it would be hard to doubt him | Got a screenplay nomination all those years ago, but has been completely ignored since despite quality work | Can’t seem to get the Academy to take his directing seriously (though they love his writing) | It seems odd he’s only been nominated once, but he had to get away for a bit after mother! | This Korean master has never been close to Oscar before. It could be exactly what the Academy is looking for |
| ALTERNATIVES | ||||
| Damien Chazelle Babylon | Ruben Ostlund Triangle of Sadness | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Bardo | Chinonye Chukwu Till | Sam Mendes Empire of Light |
| 1 nomination, 1 win (for directing) | No nominations | 3 nominations, 2 wins (for directing) | No nominations | 2 nominations 1 win (for directing) |
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| Even though he has won before, I’m slightly dubious about his chances. That being said, Babylon might be hard to ignore | The International branch has liked his films, but a true breakthrough could find him in the Director five | You have to take him seriously anytime he releases a film, but the mixed response and the Netflix factor all come into play | Poised for a big boost if the film is a critical hit, but I suspect it needs commercial success as well in order to translate | The Oscars either LOVE Mendes’ films or completely ignore them. Domestic drama has worked for him in the past |
| MORE ALTERNATIVES | ||||
| Daniels Everything Everywhere All At Once | James Cameron Avatar: The Way of Water | Noah Baumbach White Noise | Baz Luhrmann Elvis | James Grey Armageddon Time |
| No nominations | 2 nominations 1 win (for directing) | No nominations (for directing) | No nominations (for directing) | No nominations |
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| Undeniably brilliant and singular, but how weird is the Academy willing to go? | We need to start taking Cameron seriously for his substantial successes (critical and commercial) | Missed a Best Director nom by the skin of his teeth. Will they ever see him as more than just a writer? | The Oscars have snubbed him in the past. Plus, the reaction to his film is…mixed | It’s been just a matter of time with Grey. Following Ad Astra, this personal film could finally prove to be his breakthrough |
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