Margot Robbie Babylon | Michelle Williams Showing Up | Emma Thompson Good Luck to You, Leo Grande | Florence Pugh Don’t Worry Darling | Naomi Ackie I Wanna Dance With Somebody |
2 nominations | 3 nominations | 4 nominations, 1 win (for acting) | 1 nomination | No nominations |
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The Oscars have a tough time resisting her, plus she’s playing a real-life moviestar | If Reichardt’s film can break into Oscars good graces, there is no reason to think Williams won’t be pulled along with it | Expect to see a lot of pieces lauding Thompson’s brave portrayal. Critically adored out of Sundance | Critically lauded, but she hasn’t headlined a hit yet. With Olivia Wilde behind the camera, this could be the one | The Oscars did go for Respect last year, but newcomers doing biopics are their catnip |
ALTERNATIVES | ||||
Anne Hathaway Armageddon Time | Michelle Yeoh Everything Everywhere All At Once | Carey Mulligan She Said | Olivia Colman Empire of Light | Cate Blanchett TÁR |
2 nominations, 1 win | No nominations | 2 nominations | 3 nominations, 1 win | 7 nominations, 2 wins |
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She might have fallen out of favor after her win, but it’s been a decade, maybe it’s time for a critical comeback. She’s never bad | She’s never bad and she’s getting rave reviews. Maybe one of the few early contenders that could hang on | Probably closer to winning in 2020 than most realize. She plays the game and is always great | The Oscars will get sick of her eventually, right? | Todd Field is 2-2 in getting Best Actress nominations. Blanchett probably didn’t miss in 2021 by much |
MORE ALTERNATIVES | ||||
Emma Stone Poor Things | Tilda Swinton 3000 Years of Longing | Taylor Russell Bones & All | Zoe Kazan She Said | Jennifer Lawrence Red, White and Water |
3 nominations, 1 win | 1 nomination, 1 win | No nominations | No nominations | 4 nominations, 1 win |
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Lanthimos made it work for her before, but how weird can it get before the Academy ignores it? | More bullish on her than I am on Elba, mostly because she has already won before. Still could be a package deal | Great reviews from Waves could lead to her breakthrough as long as the film is to the Oscars’ taste | If the film really hits, they will probably relegate Kazan to Supporting, but it sounds like a co-lead | Never got any footing with Don’t Look Up, but this seems more what the Academy is looking for |