BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfreid, Mank
Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
The most volitile of all categories turned out to be fairly predictable. Close and Colman held their spots they have been occupying all season, while Bakalova and Youn rode their critical wins to nods. Amanda Seyfried was the pleasant surprise as I expected Jodie Foster to sneak in at the last minute.
How were my predictions?: 4/5 (Missed Seyfried)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Announcing the nominees in alphabetical order is a bit of a cheat, because everyone knew as soon as Baron Cohen was announced that Chadwick Boseman missed for Da 5 Bloods. Cohen, Kaluuya and Odom were slam dunks, while the Academy really responded to A Sound of Metal and gave a well-deserved nomination to Paul Raci. Stanfield was the big shock. I said a few days ago that we should all be collectively angry that we put a co-lead like Kaluuya in Supporting Actor, well now both co-leads are in Supporitng and it seems silly. Stanfield was great, so his inclusion is welcome, but neither men are Supporting.
My predictions: 4/5 (Missed Stanfield)
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Cary Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Finally, a little nomination normality. These were the five everyone expected and they delivered. Day and Kirby were also their film’s lone nominations.
My predictions: 5/5
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Another predictable category, but a bittersweet one. Everyone saw this same five coming, but it comes at the expense of Delroy Lindo, who suffered from his film fading in a big way leading up to the nominations. Da 5 Bloods only showed up in a sparse sound category.
My predictions: 5/5
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Many prognosticators were predicting an Aaron Sorkin snub for a few weeks, but it all felt like wishful thinking. Many didn’t like his film (I certainly didn’t), but who would replace him if he was snubbed? The Academy loves a foreign film director, so Thomas Vinterberg joins Bong Joon-Ho, Alfonso Cuaron and Pawel Pawlikowki as Best Director nominees in non-American films from the last three years.
My predictions: 4/5 (Missed Vinterberg)
Judas and the Black Messiah
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Academy’s Best Picture rules allow for nominee fluctuation, which allows me to cast a wide net for predicitons. Though I assumed nine nominees would get the call, only eight ended up in the running. I had incorrectly assumed enthusiam for The Father was hampered by its late release and relative unavailability. Additionally, I thought Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami were shoe-ins. Outside of those three, no real surprises. That being said, I had tempered hopes to see Sound of Metal make the cut.
My predictions: 7/8 (Missed The Father, predicted nine nominees)
Overall predictions: 81/113
Note: In my predictions, I completely forgot to included Live Action Short Film, so that is not included in the numbers. You can check out my full previous predictions here.
On to Oscar night!