The Male Categories are Sewn Up
If anyone had any illusions about Chadwick Boseman and Daniel Kaluuya winning Oscars, you can’t put those to rest. If Leslie Odom Jr. or Sasha Baron Cohen want to win, they will have to wait until next year (or the Original Song category in the case of Odom). As for Boseman, there is no stopping his narrative now. His wife gave a beautifully moving speech on his behalf and I have no reason to expect any other outcome for the Oscars.
There are some question marks when it comes to the Oscar morning lineups as the final two spots are still in flux in both categories.
The Female Acting Categories are in Chaos
Best Actress was turning into Viola Davis vs. Carey Mulligan. Best Supporting Actress was turning into Close vs. Colman (Round II). The Globes had other ideas. Andra Day’s victory for The United States vs. Billie Holiday firmly cements her in the Best Actress lineup, but does that bump out Vanessa Kirby? Pieces of a Woman has been faltering since it premiered and she feels like the shakiest potential nominee. Luckily, there aren’t many performances that can bump her out…unless Rosamund Pike arrives off her Globe victory.
Supporting Actress threw the biggest curve ball of the night with Jodie Foster’s win. All other nominees in the category have picked up a number of precursor mentions, while the Golden Globe is the first victory of the season for The Mauritanian. Will this translate to Oscars? I am dubious. While Foster delivers a fine performance, the film itself is not beloved. That being said, Close and Colman feel like the only locks in the category. Any combination of Maria Bakalova, Helena Zengel, Amanda Seyfried, Foster, Dominique Fishback, Ellen Burstyn or Yuh-jung Youn could occupy the other three spots.
I missed all three female categories in my predictions for good measure.
Chloe Zhao has Wrapped up Best Director
The Academy should save some time and begin engraving Chloe Zhao’s name on the Best Director trophy. With a Best Director win at the Globes, Zhao has yet to lose any precursor award for Best Director. This kind of dominance is almost unpresendented. She will be poised to join Kathryn Bigelow as the only female Best Director winner.
Best Picture Winner Nomadland?
Just as Zhao keeps winning, so does Nomadland. One of the most overwhelming precursor runs for one film continues with the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Drama. Nomadland now is positioned as the clear Oscar frontrunner, which I expect to solidify before the Oscar ceremony.
That’s just fine by me.
How did I do on my Predictions?