Golden Globe Predictions

Believe it or not, the Golden Globes are only four days away. I don’t put as much stock in the Globes as everyone else. Keep in mind the Globes are a group of less than 100 people who are easily swayed by stars and money. But, it is the most visible awards show outside of the Oscars.

Let’s get a head start on everyone and get our predictions out into the world before everyone else.
Best Motion Picture – Drama

The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

If the HFPA has shown us anything throughout the years, it’s that they are easily swayed.  Nomadland has so thoroughly dominated precursors, I don’t see a way they move away from it now.

WILL WIN: Nomadland
SHOULD WIN: Nomadland
DARK HORSE: The Trial of the Chicago 7


Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

I hope everyone is ready for the Chadwick Boseman corination weep-fest.  You might not want it, but it’s coming.  Boseman delivered a great performance, so I’m fine with it.

WILL WIN: Boseman
SHOULD WIN: Ahmed
DARK HORSE: Hopkins


Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Mulligan’s chances of translating to Oscar hinge on whether or not she can beat McDormand here.  The HFPA has a rich history of awarding out-of-the-box female performances, and I think they’ll go with Mulligan

WILL WIN: Mulligan
SHOULD WIN: Mulligan/McDormand
DARK HORSE: Davis

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Palm Springs
Music
The Prom

This category doesn’t exactly show the cream of the crop, but it also seems like the most in the air.  It all depends on how they view Hamilton, since most precursors didn’t include it.  I would love a Palm Springs win, but it feels like wishful thinking.

WILL WIN: Hamilton
SHOULD WIN: Palm Springs
DARK HORSE: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Cohen’s momentum seems overwhelming at this point.  The only question is if he leaves with one Globe or two

WILL WIN: Cohen
SHOULD WIN: Samberg
DARK HORSE: Miranda

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson, Music
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Bakalova has picked up more precursor wins than anyone on this list by a country mile and I see that translating to Sunday night as well.  Pike’s film has been widely seen in the last week, but she doesn’t feel like a real threat.

WILL WIN: Bakalova
SHOULD WIN: Taylor-Joy
DARK HORSE: Pike

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

Supporting Actor is where the HFPA likes to get wild, but Leto’s surprise nomination shouldn’t translate to a win.  Kaluuya and Cohen go neck-and-neck with Kaluuya pulling it out

WILL WIN: Kaluuya
SHOULD WIN: Kaluuya
DARK HORSE: Odom

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Helena Zengel, News of the World

And here we are at the “will this be the year for Glenn Close” portion of the program.  If she doesn’t win, I would be completely shocked.  They gave her a Globe for The Wife, so they will give her one for Hillbilly Elegy too

WILL WIN: Close
SHOULD WIN: Colman
DARK HORSE: Foster

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Emerald Fennell,  Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller, Christopher Hampton – The Father
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

The Globes are gonna Globe and Sorkin winning would be very on-par.  Any nominee not named Sorkin would be a deserving winner, but don’t try to resist the Sorkin win.
WILL WIN: Sorkin
SHOULD WIN: Fennell
DARK HORSE: Zhao

Best Director – Motion Picture
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

If they aren’t going to reward Nomadland anywhere else, this will be the place to give it something.  Luckily, Zhao deserves it.  Watch out for Fincher, because Mank might get shut out otherwise.

WILL WIN: Zhao
SHOULD WIN: Zhao
DARK HORSE: Fincher

Best Original Score – Motion Picture
The Midnight Sky– Alexandre Desplat
Tenet – Ludwig Göransson
News of the World – James Newton Howard
Mank – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
Reznor/Ross vs. Reznor/Ross/Batiste.  Even the people who don’t love Soul fall over themselves loving the score.

WILL WIN: Soul
SHOULD WIN: Soul
D
ARK HORSE: News of the World


Best Original Song – Motion Picture

“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah – H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7  – Daniel Pemberton, Celeste
“Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead – Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami – Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holliday – Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq

And here we are at the “will this be the year for Diane Warren” portion of the program.  Yes, I think it will be.

WILL WIN: “lo Si (Seen)”
SHOULD WIN: “Speak Now”
DARK HORSE: “Tigress & Tweed”

Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

The “Wolfwalkers is 100x better than Soul” crowd will get up in arms, but don’t overthink it.

WILL WIN: Soul
SHOULD WIN: Soul
DARK HORSE: Wolfwalkers

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Another Round
La Llorona
The Life Ahead
Minari
Two of Us

Maybe the most interesting category of the night.  Will the unfortunate placement of Minari give it a win, or will Another Round keep steamrolling through Foreign Language awards?  I feel like Minari will be propelled through HFPA guilt

WILL WIN: Minari
SHOULD WIN: Minari
DARK HORSE: La Llorona

Best Television Series – Drama
The Crown
Lovecraft Country
The Mandalorian
Ozark
Ratched

WILL WIN: The Crown
SHOULD WIN: The Crown
DARK HORSE: The Mandalorian


Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Josh O’Connor, The Crown
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Al Pacino, Hunters
Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason

WILL WIN: O’Connor
SHOULD WIN: Odenkirk
DARK HORSE: Rhys


Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Emma Corrin, The Crown
Laura Linney, Ozark
Sarah Paulson, Ratched

WILL WIN: Corrin
SHOULD WIN: Corrin
DARK HORSE: Linney


Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

“Emily in Paris” (Netflix)
“The Flight Attendant” (HBO Max)
“The Great” (Hulu)
“Schitt’s Creek” (CBC)
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
WILL WIN: Schitt’s Creek
SHOULD WIN: Ted Lasso
DARK HORSE: The Flight Attendant


Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Ramy Youssef, Ramy

WILL WIN: Sudeikis
SHOULD WIN: Sudeikis
DARK HORSE: Hoult


Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Lily Collins, Emily in Paris
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Elle Fanning, The Great
Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
WILL WIN: Cuoco
SHOULD WIN: Cuoco
DARK HORSE: Fanning


Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Normal People
The Queen’s Gambit
Small Axe
The Undoing
Unorthodox

WILL WIN: The Queen’s Gambit
SHOULD WIN: The Queen’s Gambit
DARK HORSE: Small Axe


Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Bryan Cranston, Your Honor
Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule
Hugh Grant, The Undoing
Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True

WILL WIN: Ruffalo
SHOULD WIN: Hawke
DARK HORSE: Grant


Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People
Shira Haas, Unorthodox
Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit

WILL WIN: Taylor-Joy
SHOULD WIN: Taylor-Joy
DARK HORSE: Haas


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

John Boyega, Small Axe
Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule
Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Jim Parsons, Hollywood
Donald Sutherland, The Undoing

WILL WIN: Boyega
SHOULD WIN: Boyega
DARK HORSE: Gleeson


Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Julia Garner, Ozark
Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
Cynthia Nixon, Ratched

WILL WIN: Anderson
SHOULD WIN: Murphy
DARK HORSE: Garner

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