We are three weeks away from the Oscar nominations announcements, and there is nothing that hasn’t been seen.  Everything is out in the world and has a critical consensus.   Here is where we currently stand:

– Minari keeps missing a number of precursors and is following The Farewell‘s trajectory from 2019 where Lulu Wang’s film missed all Oscar nominations.  If Minari wants to find its way into Oscar’s good graces, more eyes need to get on the film

– Mank continues to get precursor mentions, but keeps finding itself outside of craft category awards.  Additionally, more and more word of mouth keeps working against David Fincher’s film.  I have been predicting a Gary Oldman snub for some time, but I have him in my predictions currently.  Ben Affleck and Steven Yeun are ready to hop up in his stead

– Speaking of Mank, Best Supporting Actress seems the most up in the air, with Olivia Colman seemingly the only solid nomination.  Glenn Close seems close to a lock, but Hillbilly Elegy has many vocal detractors.  Helena Zengel has the biggest upward trajectory in a film that is playing well to older Academy voters.  Mank‘s Amanda Seyfried and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm‘s Maria Bakalova have been raking in the acting prizes, but both appear on the outs.  Ellen Burstyn and Yuh-jung Youn are waiting in the wings, while Dominique Fishback has shown upward momentum as well

– Best Actress feels like a six-horse race with Amy Adams attempting to bump out either Andra Day or Vanessa Kirby.  Both Pieces of a Woman actresses have been campaigning hard and Day feels like the breakthrough nomination

Check out my updated predictions and sound off on your own